No Doubt, BREXIT is Bad
Two weeks after the BREXIT vote, I am still reeling from how obviously bad it all is. BREXIT is bad. The referendum was a bad idea. The players behind it all were bad people. Yet, the slog towards BREXIT seems to continue.
I can accept that before the vote, people might actually have believed that the leave campaign had a case, but after the vote; the three major players who promised to lead Britain out of the EU all dropped out: Cameron, Johnson, and Farage. The promises fell as fast as the liars who told them. Money would not be redirected to National Health Services. Nor would Freedom of movement and immigration be revoked.
Immediate Fallout if Obvious
The immediate fallout was easy to predict and terrible to watch. As of today, the pound is at 1.28USD (down from 1.52USD before the vote) — the lowest it has been since Margaret Thatcher was leading the UK out of recession and peak unemployment in 1985. Leavers will point out that the FTSE Index has recovered, but that is foreign cash buying UK stocks as the pound becomes deeply discounted.
If the UK continues with BREXIT, over the next 2+ years, I think it will be the end of the UK. I hope a solution, and the political will to seize it, emerges that stops the BREXIT. But despite the obvious and immediate fall out, for the last two weeks I have seen the Brits resolve themselves to stiff upper lip into BREXIT.
But the financial collapse has just been the first shoe to drop. When BREXIT really hits, it will be worse.
Long Term Predictions
Scotland will leave
I am giving this high odds. They voted to stay in the EU and they were close to leaving the UK before. They have already made motions that this will trigger another leave vote.
The EU won’t negotiate Scotland to continue as part of the EU as long as they are part of the UK.
If Scotland leaves the UK, this is no longer a United Kingdom, it is just England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. No more Union Jack.
Meanwhile, Scotland will be trying to get into the EU as quickly as possible to position itself to absorb all the jobs leaving the UK.
Speaking of which… I am not giving Northern Ireland as high of odds as Scotland leaving, but I would still give it 50/50.
Like Scotland, they voted to stay in the EU and would be drug out against their will. Their economy, like Scotland, is very dependent on EU membership.
Land border with EU.
With either Scotland or Northern Ireland, what is left of the UK is also left with a land border with the EU.
I dread to think what a hot political land border between Norther Ireland and Ireland will mean. And, I doubt that Hadrian’s Wall will satisfy UKIP’s anti-immigration paranoia.
Business Becomes Punitive
UK citizens have shown a complete disregard for business and global economy — so they will be mistrusted. Business are run by people, people who lost lost trillions to BREXIT.
The “U” in UK will now stand for Uncertainty.
London will no longer be a trusted business capital and it will be a hard cycle to break. Just as trustworthy London attracted more business, the more business London sheds the more it will be seen as a risk. For people who think this is only a temporary risk, please look at American cities like Detroit. Once a city has been seen as a failure, it is nearly impossible to convince business otherwise. Simple fact: business doesn’t bet on risks, it bets on “sure things.”
Cities Becomes Punitive
Can you say rural austerity?
With cities shedding jobs, there will be little patience for bandwidth for cows or farmer subsidies. Rural areas don’t have enough local resources to modernize and maintain, since the shift from an agrarian economy, they have relied on some sort of federalized system to distribute wealth from the cities. They just voted out of this system. When the budget cuts fall, they should expect to be first in line at the chopping block.
Youth gets Punitive
See above. Old people voted a future for the youth that they didn’t want.
Not to be morbid, but even if article 50 were triggered today, with lower life expectancy in pro-BREXIT areas, how many of these old people would still be around to live in a post-EU, post-UK England?
Brain Drain to Back EU
Last, but certainly not least; you have disenfranchised the cities and the educated youth — the very engines of the current UK economy. As their opportunities dwindle locally, they will seek greener pastures elsewhere.
I hear Dublin is soon to have a growing economy, and Scotland is looking to have the same.