Last week we talked about how easily estimates go wrong when you try to make giant ones up front, but they can also fail easily when you try to add up lots of small ones. Once again, it comes down to simple math and how optimistic we are about our planning. If I were to…
Month: April 2012
How Software Estimates Fail Part 3: The Grand Estimate
Classic project planning work backwards, you pick a large goal that will propel the business forward and add the right mix of enough man power and/or time to hit your goals. Make millions. Retire. If it were that simple, none of us would be dialing into 9am scrum meetings.There is a reason why when people…
How Software Estimates Fail Part 2: Estimating Once
This is the “Cone of Uncertainty.” The numbers behind the cone are based upon surveys of thousands of software projects and the differences between their estimated and actual schedules. As you travel into the cone, you are travelling further into the project’s timeline. Estimates made later in a project are base upon more data and…
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